What’s next for Johnson Controls Stock?

Johnson Controls stock (NYSE:JCI) fell 8% in one month, compared to a 10% drop seen in the broader S&P500 index. There are a few factors behind this drop in JCI stocks. First, rising interest rates and the economic slowdown bode ill for construction demand. Second, the $0.27 reduction in the company’s earnings forecast (in the middle of the range) for the full fiscal year 2022 due to supply chain disruptions did not sit well with investors. These factors, together with weakness in the broader markets, weighed on JCI stock.

Now that JCI stock has fallen 8% in one month, will it continue its downward trajectory or is a rise imminent? Based on historical performance, there are a high probability of an increase in JCI stock over the next month. A movement of -8% or more in a month for Johnson Controls
has happened 242 times in the last ten years. Of those cases, 155 caused Johnson Controls shares to rise over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical trend reflects 155 out of 242 or a 64% probability of a rise in JCI stock over the next month. See our analysis of Johnson controls the stock’s upside odds for more details.

Calculation of “probability of event” and “chance of upside” using data from the last ten years

  • After fluctuating -8% or more over five days, the stock rose 50% of times over the next five days.
  • After fluctuating -1% or more over ten days, the stock soared 59% of recoveries over the next ten days.
  • After fluctuating -8% or more over a twenty-one day period, the stock rose 64% of times over the next twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests an equal chance of a rise or fall in JCI stock over the next five days, but a greater chance of a rise over the next ten days and the following month.

Johnson Controls returns a (recent) peer comparison

  • Five-day return: CMI high at -2.0%; JCI bottoms out at -7.7%
  • Ten-day return: Highest TT at 1.6%; HON low at -4.4%
  • Twenty-one day return: Highest TT at -5.5%; HON low at -12.3%

Although Johnson Controls stocks appear to be able to show higher levels, it is worth seeing how Johnson controls his peers price on the measures that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies in all sectors on Peer comparisons.

In addition, the Covid-19 crisis has created many price discontinuities which can offer attractive business opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive stock valuation is to Novanta vs. Abbott.

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James V. Hayes