Rise, fall and rise again



A recent research report from the State Bank of India (SBI) highlights the change in deposit trend in the first three weeks of FY22 from FY21. The report notes that the growth in banking system deposits for FY22 revealed alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

The bank’s research team report says it is well known that all banks’ deposits and credit decline in April and May. However, it is interesting to note that the deposit trend has changed since FY21. The note pointed out that the fields showed alternating periods of expansion and contraction in FY22 during the first 3 fortnights.

Bank deposits showed an interesting trend during the first 3 fortnights (April to May). During the first fortnight it increased by 1,01,357 crore, while decreasing by 80579 crore in the second half, then increasing again by 82,555 crore.

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Trend in bank deposits

Deposits had risen astoundingly, report says 2.8 lakh crore in FY21 and FY22 it has already increased by 1.0 lakh crore until May 07, 2021.

Explaining the possibility of such a trend, the note says: “ It is possible that such an expansion followed by a contraction could indicate domestic stress as people who get payroll credits in the first fortnight take it out in the second fortnight for health spending / store currencies as a precautionary measure and an uncertain scenario and the trend continues. ”

So far, we only have 3 fortnights of deposit data and this trend would be validated once we have the full data in the first week of June, the SBI research added.

Separately, the report indicates that the Covid-19 infection is still spreading in rural areas. The share of rural districts in new cases is increasing quite rapidly in May, although the total number of cases started to decline from the second week of May. It went from 45.5% at the end of April to 53.6% according to the latest data. Notably, this corresponds to the peak of 53.7% observed at the end of August 2020. The 20 main rural districts now account for around 15% of new cases in the countries, the hinterland of Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka continues to be the most affected according to reported data.

The report estimates India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the fourth quarter at around 1.3%. Based on our model, the forecast GDP growth for the fourth quarter would be around 1.3% (with a downward bias) against a negative projection of the ONS of -1%. We now expect the GDP decline for the full year to be around 7.3% (compared to our previous forecast of -7.4%). ”

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